Crude Oil Trade Idea
On Tuesday the EU decided to press ahead with an oil embargo phasing out Russian supply within 6 months and refined products by the end of the year. Additionally, the Fed meeting last night informed the market that the US economy remains robust and Powell should be able to engineer a soft landing. This should alleviate additional demand destruction fears which are already emanating from China’s lockdowns. There’s an OPEC+ meeting later today, where the expectation is for the status quo of a 400k bpd increase for the month of June. Lastly, Iran US nuclear talks remain gridlocked with no new breakthroughs keeping supply in check.
(Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.)
Technically, price has broken to the upside of the descending flat-sided triangle. Price found resistance in the form of the 38.2% Fibonacci level, but still remains above the 50-day SMA. The RSI is in no man’s land but still has plenty room to run before overbought fears creep in. The levels to the upside I’d be keeping an eye on would be $115, $120 and $125. This is where price has found resistance previously.
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