Bitcoin Price Outlook: Confidence Falters After Flash Crash as Key $100K Level Holds

Market Confidence Shaken After the Flash Crash 

The crypto “flash crash” on 10 October rattled sentiment across the digital asset landscape, leaving many in the crypto trading ecosystem hesitant to re-enter the market. Restoring real confidence will take time — though a Bitcoin price rebound and lower levels of realized volatility could help improve sentiment and attract increased buying flows.

Currently, Bitcoin’s daily chart shows rallies capped at the 5-day EMA, with buyers showing little enthusiasm to push the price back above the former breakdown point near $107K. Bulls continue to defend the psychological $100K level, and whether this area becomes a sustainable floor — forming a platform for a future move higher as liquidity improves — remains the central question. 

However, traders must remain vigilant: a daily or weekly close below $100K would carry significant technical implications. 

Key Technical Levels: $100K Support vs. 50-Week SMA

The weekly timeframe offers a clearer perspective on Bitcoin’s recent breakdown. Price action looks set to close the week below horizontal support at $107K, drawing attention to the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) - a key trend filter that has guided the uptrend since 2023.

Pullbacks to this long-term moving average have previously marked powerful upside reversals — notably in October 2023, August 2024, and April 2025. While the historical sample size is small, these past rebounds highlight the SMA’s significance as a trend-defining support zone. 

A weekly close below the 50-week SMA would serve as confirmation that institutional and “whale” participants remain on the sidelines, raising the risk of a deeper decline through the June lows around $98,141. Despite a deep-seated trader bias toward buying Bitcoin dips, it’s worth remembering that momentum and trend can cut both ways — downside momentum can feed on itself just as powerfully as rallies do. 

Liquidity, Confidence, and Institutional Flow 

Bitcoin remains a liquidity-sensitive, high-beta momentum asset — but above all, it is a confidence trade. Right now, confidence is notably lacking. 

Volatility and erratic price action are dictating terms, and spot and derivatives flows remain too thin to suggest an imminent, sustained bullish reversal. 

ETF data reinforces this narrative: we’ve now seen six consecutive days of outflows across major Bitcoin ETFs, confirming that institutional investors and fund managers continue to rotate capital toward the higher-quality end of the investment universe. 

On-Chain and Derivatives Signals 

On-chain data provides additional insight into waning confidence. The number of large wallet holders — addresses holding over 1,000 BTC — has fallen from 2,117 in July to 2,057, underscoring reduced whale participation.

Meanwhile, funding rates in perpetual futures have declined, reflecting a flush-out of leveraged long positions and a reset in speculative appetite. 

Publicly listed Bitcoin treasury entities are also feeling the heat. Notably, MicroStrategy’s equity — often seen as a leveraged proxy for BTC exposure — is down 48% from its July highs, amplifying pressure on sentiment.

The Road Ahead: Key Catalysts for a Reversal Higher

 The stage is set for a decisive move

• A downside break and close below $100K, coupled with a weekly close under the 50-week SMA, would likely accelerate the drawdown, forcing more potential buyers to the sidelines. 

• Conversely, a rebound above $107K–$110K, supported by ETF inflows, an improving BTC/gold ratio, and 30-day realized volatility falling toward 30%, would signal a renewed risk-on environment. 

A potential macro catalyst could come from improved liquidity conditions, particularly if the U.S. Treasury runs down its Treasury General Account (TGA) — injecting fresh reserves into the system. For now, however, Bitcoin remains range-bound, sentiment-driven, and liquidity-conditions a headwind for risky assets— and until confidence returns to the crypto markets, rallies are likely to be sold rather than sustained. 

Bottom Line: 

Bitcoin’s post-crash landscape is defined by fragile confidence, key technical inflection points, and a cautious institutional tone. The $100K and $107K levels are critical — holding one could restore stability, losing the other could reignite the selloff.