Nvidia’s Market Cap Tops $4T as China H20 Sales Resume – Will It Break $200 Next?

With pullbacks proving shallow and buyers eager to chase momentum, the central debate among equity traders is no longer if Nvidia will break $200—but when.

Green Light for H20 GPU Sales to China

Fueling this momentum is Nvidia’s latest blog post (released Monday U.S. time, Tuesday 11:38 AEST) announcing that the U.S. government will issue licenses allowing it to resume H20 GPU sales to Chinese customers. Nvidia also announced plans to manufacture a new line of RTX PRO GPUs, designed to comply with current export restrictions, opening new channels for compliant sales.

This effectively derisks the China policy overhang and adds upside potential to Nvidia’s longer-term revenue trajectory.

While this move may have been anticipated as part of the broader U.S.–China EDA and rare earths agreement, the timing—coinciding with Trump’s renewed tariff rhetoric—caught some investors by surprise. Still, it reinforces Nvidia’s attractiveness and the broader AI investment thesis heading into a key earnings cycle.

Real-Time Market Reaction and 24-Hour Trading

With Pepperstone’s 24-hour Nvidia CFD, traders were able to react to the announcement immediately—well before U.S. pre-market opened—capturing the move as Nvidia spiked over 4% and closed above $170. This showcases how real-time access to globally relevant news flow—and the tools to trade around it—can give traders an edge to react and manage the risk in an open position.

Implications for Earnings and Forward Guidance

Sell-side analysts had previously cut FY2026 estimates in April by $8 billion in response to the original H20 ban. For the current Q2 2026 (Q226) earnings report, consensus sits at $45.54 billion in revenue, with full-year FY2026 forecasts at $201 billion.

The China GPU development likely won't impact Q226 results (to be reported on 27 August), but it raises upside risk for Q3 and Q4 (Q326 and Q426) revenue and earnings.

Historically, Nvidia tends to beat consensus and raise forward guidance. With consensus for Q326 revenue currently at $52.16 billion, expectations are now rising that Nvidia will lift its guidance above this mark, potentially even adding $15 billion to FY2026 sales estimates.

Big Picture: Nvidia at the Heart of a Global AI Race

Nvidia is clearly in fine form, with investors fully bought into its growth trajectory. The company is benefiting from:

• Rising AI infrastructure capex from Microsoft, Amazon, and other hyperscalers

• Sovereign GPU orders from the Middle East

• The growing perception that AI is now a core utility, akin to water or internet access

In the geopolitical backdrop, the U.S.–China AI arms race is intensifying. Yet Trump’s easing of export restrictions underscores a strategic calculus: limiting U.S. tech exports ultimately weakens U.S. capital markets and reduces the global competitiveness of American firms like Nvidia.

The future for Nvidia clearly looks positive, and the market is fully onboard with this view… we look towards its earnings in August, but one thing is clear… the closer the share price gets to $200, the higher the bar to please the market will be set.