NVIDIA Earnings Smash Expectations as Revenue Guidance Surges Above Forecasts – Can Shares Break $200?

NVIDIA Delivers Another Blockbuster Quarter 

NVIDIA has once again exceeded market expectations, delivering a powerful Q4 earnings report alongside robust forward guidance. The company reported revenue of $68.1 billion, beating consensus estimates by $2.2 billion, reinforcing the strength of global AI-driven demand. 

The immediate market reaction was strongly positive, with shares rallying in after-hours trade and testing the $200 level. Attention has now shifted to whether this breakout can be sustained and potentially open the door to a retest of the all-time highs near $212.

Q1 Revenue Guidance Surges Above the Street 

The standout feature of the report was forward guidance. NVIDIA projected Q1 revenue of $78 billion at the midpoint, well above the Street’s forecast of $72.7 billion and at the upper end of analyst expectations. 

This guidance confirms that demand for AI infrastructure remains strong, particularly from hyperscalers and enterprise customers expanding their compute capacity. Management reiterated that companies are accelerating investment in AI, with adoption rising rapidly across industries. 

Margins Remain Resilient Despite Input Cost & Competition Concerns 

Gross margins came in at 75.2 percent for Q4, above expectations, and management guided to a 75 percent midpoint for the current quarter. This is significant given investor concerns around rising memory and DRAM costs potentially weighing on profitability. 

Instead, NVIDIA continues to demonstrate strong pricing power and operational leverage, with margins holding at elevated levels. Sustained gross margin performance will remain a key factor in supporting valuation. 

China and Competition in Focus 

While the earnings numbers were strong, some caution emerged during the post-earnings analyst call. Management acknowledged competitive progress in the AI chip space and highlighted uncertainty around China, despite holding a licence to ship H200 chips to the region. These geopolitical and competitive factors may contribute to short-term volatility, even as the broader AI demand story remains intact. 

Can NVIDIA Sustain a Break Above $200?

Technically, the $200 level has become a key psychological and structural marker. A sustained move above this level would increase the probability of a retest of the record highs around $212. Failure to hold above $200 could see the stock drift back into its prior consolidation range. 

With full-year revenue estimates currently around $213 billion and projections of $334 billion for 2027, there is scope for upward revisions if AI adoption continues at its current pace. 

The next major catalyst will be NVIDIA’s GTC Developers Conference on 16 March, where investors will look for updates on the Rubin platform rollout and longer-term revenue outlook. 

For now, NVIDIA has delivered exactly what shareholders wanted: strong earnings, strong guidance, and continued dominance in the AI infrastructure buildout. The market now decides whether that is enough to sustain the breakout.